Another Polish Interest Rate Cut March 5, 2026 The National Bank of Poland lowered their policy reference interest rate to a 4-year low of 3.75% from 4.00% yesterday in what had been an expected decision in spite of the elevation of geopolitical uncertainties this month. The new level is 300 basis points below the peak…
Dollar, Bond Yields and Commodity Prices Up and Another Momentum Shift in Equities March 5, 2026 As has often been the case during the Iran war, there has been other equity market reversal between Asia’s and Europe’s trading day. Stock market indices rebounded 9.6% in South Korea, 2.6% in Taiwan, 1.9% in Japan, 1.8% in…
With Rumor Mill in Overdrive, Financial Markets Get Whipsawed March 4, 2026 A perfect storm of war, AI, and constantly fluctuating official statements regarding the middle eastern conflict is afoot for an out-of-control rumor mill. There’s been a wide reversal in market momentum during the overnight hours after an unconfirmed report that Iran intelligence officials…
Shifting Expectations about What Central Banks Might Need to Do March 3, 2026 All things considered, the reaction of financial markets yesterday to the quickly unfolding war in the Middle East was more muted than many had reason to expect. The media are having a hard time keeping up with the rapidly changing events, and…
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted March 2, 2026 The initial currency market reaction in these early days of the war between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the other has been favorable to the dollar, which is attracting funds looking for…
Financial Market Repercussions From Broadening Middle East War March 2, 2026 (150) Hot money flows seeking a safe haven lifted the dollar by almost a full percent on a weighted basis. Individual gains amount to 1.2% against the Swiss franc, 1.0% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% to a 5-week high relative to the euro,…
February 2026 in Figures February 28, 2026 U.S.-generated uncertainty, which had been so prominent in 2025, somehow managed to build to an even greater extent in the first month of President Trump’s second term. Despite being the creator of the chaos, America’s currency benefited from safe-haven demand, so losses versus currencies against which the dollar…
Three-Dimensional Chaos February 23, 2026 (151) Trading volume in the U.S. today will be muted by a blizzard affecting tens of millions in the Northeast corridor. Stock markets in Japan and China were shut by the Emperor’s Birthday holiday and the tail end of Lunar New Year observances, respectively. The Middle East is on high…
Next Week’s Menu: February 21-27, 2026 February 20, 2026 Central Banks: Monetary policy stances will be reviewed in South Korea, Israel, Thailand, Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Jamaica. Goolsbee and Musalem of the Federal Reserve, Takada of the Bank of Japan and Governor Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia have public speaking engagements. Events and Holidays:…
U.S. GDP, PCE Price Deflator, and the Preliminary February Purchasing Manager Surveys Top Friday’s Menu February 20, 2026 The dollar was narrowly mixed just prior to the eagerly awaited twin-bill of U.S. economic data releases, unchanged against the euro and loonie, 0.3% higher relative to New Zealand’s currency, 0.3% stronger against the Mexican peso, and…