Confusion Caused by U.S. Federal Shutdown Intensifies in Two Directions November 7, 2025 Every day now brings a new record duration in the current U.S. federal government shutdown. Neither political side of the stalemate has found an advantageous way to compromise without appearing to lose. The pain level took a big step upward yesterday when…
Slight Retreat in the Dollar and A Razor-Thin Bank of England Interest Rate Decision November 6, 2025 The stepped down a little in overnight trading, losing 0.3% against the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Canadian and Australian currencies. Alternatively, South Korea’s won lost 0.4% against…
Central Bank Rate Decisions in Poland, Sweden and Georgia November 5, 2025 The National Bank of Poland’s policy interest rate experienced its fifth 25-basis point cut of 2025 today and has now dropped altogether since September 2023 by a total of 250 basis points. Polish CPI inflation of 2.8% in October was down from 5.0%…
Democrats Made Gains in U.S. Election and Service Sector PMI Surveys Show Euroland Recovery Gaining Broader Traction November 5, 2025 Democrats swept the five most closely watched U.S. election contests, winning gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and the New York City mayoral race, allowing California congressional districts to be redrawn, and preventing a…
A Good Day for the Dollar but a Bad One for Equities November 4, 2025 The dollar experience across-the-board appreciation overnight, rising on the weighted DXY basis past the 100.0 for the first time since the end of July and to its strongest such quote since May. Record highs against the Indian rupee elicited intervention…
New Month Beckons With Continuing U.S. Federal Shutdown, October Batch of Manufacturing PMI Surveys, Some Price Data and a Japanese Holiday Closure November 3, 2025 Economic pain from the unresolved 5-week-old U.S. federal government shutdown is expected to intensify in early November. On this first business day of November, manufacturing purchasing manager surveys have been…
October 2025 in Figures October 31, 2025 Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined substantially in the U.K. and Canada but experienced much smaller net changes during October in other economies in the table below. A 25-basis point cut in the federal funds target late in the month contrasted with decisions in Japan and Euroland not to…
Next Week’s Menu: November 1-7, 2025 October 31, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed next week in the U.K., Australia, Sweden, Norway, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Moldova, Georgia, Malaysia, and Czech Republic. Governors Bailey of the BOE, Bullock of the RB A, and Macklem of the BOC will hold press conferences. Daly, Mesalem and…
Witching Hour October 31, 2025 Halloween 2025 finds the dollar in treat mode, with overnight gains of 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus sterling, 0.2% relative to the loonie, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc and 0.1% against the euro. While many stock markets are closing the week on a down note, U.S. stock futures an…
A Three-Ring Circus of Market Influences October 30, 2025 A 90-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea resulted in a de-escalation of trade tensions but a rise in national security brinkmanship. While a formal trade deal was not signed, an understanding was reached on several points. The treat of a 100% U.S….