Continuing Uncertainty about the Inflationary Impact Ahead of Higher Tariffs July 18, 2025 Overnight financial market movements have been generally limited. There is a softer dollar, down 0.6% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.4% verdus the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to the Canadian dollar and sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields…
Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Up July 17, 2025 Broadly based dollar rises overnight followed Trump’s denial that he plans to fire Powell and a Beige Book signaling modest to moderate growth in most Federal Reserve districts. There was some relief, too, that yesterday’s producer price report was less alarming the the consumer price data…
Indonesian Interest Rate Cut July 16, 2025 With that trade deal secured, Bank Indonesia cut its interest rate today by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The rate reduction had been expected in light of in-target Indonesian inflation and a stable rupiah. At 5.25%, the new rate level is its lowest since December 2022 and down…
Calm Markets in Face of Approaching Tariff Witching Hour July 16, 2025 The dollar dipped 0.1% overnight against the yen, euro, sterling and Australian dollar but edged 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, kiwi and Turkish lira. The Canadian dollar is flat, while the Korean won lost 0.3%. 10-year sovereign debt yields slid a basis point…
U.S. Economic Policy Bets that Are Disregarding History July 15, 2025 While Republicans and Democrats agree on little, one notable exception is that the policy agenda of the Trump Administration may be the most transforming, or alternatively radicalizing, package of changes ever tried in the nation’s history. Time will be the ultimate judge of whether,…
Chinese GDP and U.S. CPI Highlight Today’s Data Menu July 15, 2025 A slew of Chinese economic data were reported earlier today, and now investors await U.S. June consumer price figures that are expected to reveal a further acceleration of both total and core inflation. The initial effect of higher tariffs may be clarified, and…
Sovereign Debt Yields Rise as Fiscal and Tariff Concerns Crowd Out Soft Economic Data July 14, 2025 (183) A six-basis point increase of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield (JGB) led a rise in comparable sovereign debt yields this Monday that also included increases of two bps in France and Italy and a single basis…
In the latest data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the net speculative positions for the Australian Dollar (AUD) indicate a further deepening of bearish sentiment among market participants. As of July 11, 2025, the net speculative positions have moved to -74.3K, down from -70.1K previously. This shift signifies a growing consensus…
Next Week’s Menu: July 12-18, 2025 July 11, 2025 Central Banks: Bank Indonesia has a scheduled interest rate policy review. The Fed Beige Book of regional trends will be published, and Hammack and Williams are among the Fed officials with speaking engagements. Bank of Governor Bailey also speaks publicly. Holiday and Special Events: France’s Bastille…
Central Banks, Tariff News, and Corporate Earnings Vie for Market Attention July 11, 2025 A fresh record high in the price of Bitcoin overnight of $118,661 was main eye-catching market development since yesterday’s closing time on the U.S. east coast. Even after retreating about $1000, crypto’s net overnight gain has been 1.5%. The rise since…