China Trade Balance, Euroland GDP & Employment Growth, and U.S. Labor Market Situation Data March 7, 2025 With investors awaiting U.S. jobs figures due in just over a half hour, the dollar’s continues to show a soft tone, touching its lowest levels overnight in 17 weeks against the euro ($1.0871) and in a similar span…
Trump Speech, Lutnick’s Scoop, and Across-the-Board Large Rise in Long-Term European Interest Rates March 5, 2025 President Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress last night lasted 99 minutes (a multi-decade record) but was predictable for the most part. The element of policy surprise was leaked by Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who indicated that 25%…
Hypothetical Trade War Transformed Into an Actual One March 4, 2025 The only date in the calendar year whose name actually makes a statement is “March Forth”. Right on cue, a trade war pitting the United States against many other countries was launched by President Trump and met immediately by import duties against U.S. goods…
February Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys, Tariff Deadlines and Geopolitical Fallout from Friday’s White House Debacle March 3, 2025 (202) Financial markets have seen some big moves this first business day of March. The dollar has dropped 0.9% against the euro and sterling and has also lost 0.4% against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar and…
February 2025 in Figures February 28, 2025 Aside from a 3% drop against the Japanese yen and a slightly greater than 1% rise versus the Chinese yuan, net dollar movements in February were extremely trivial. Evidence emerged in the month than not only has U.S. disinflation progressed more slowly than hoped but also confidence in…
Next Week’s Menu: March 1-7, 2025 February 28, 2025 Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Malaysia, Turkey and at the European Central Bank. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, and the bank’s macro forecasts will be updated. Goolsbee, Williams, Barker and Bostic are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly…
U.S. Trade Deficit Surprise February 28, 2025 Financial markets around the world had been looking ahead all this week to today’s U.S. January report of personal income, consumption and PCE price deflator, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. As things turned out, the price index arrived pretty much as investors had been expecting….
Stagflationary Concerns February 27, 2025 The investment community remains concerned that President Trump’s revolutionary policy agenda, which is proceeding at Blitzkrieg speed, will introduce upside inflationary risks and downside growth risks. The concerns are limited to the U.S. economy. Europe is likely to fair even worse and possibly Asia, too. The disparate possibilities are reflected…
Better Tone in World Equity Markets February 26, 2025 Equity markets in the Pacific Rim rallied 3.3% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in New Zealand and 1.0% in China. Stock markets in the euro area’s four biggest economies so far today are showing net gains of at least 1.0%, while U.S. stock futures and the British…
A Third South Korean Central Bank Rate Cut February 25, 2025 South Korea’s Base Rate peak of 3.5% had been maintained from January 2023 until an initial cut last October. That incremental reduction of 25 basis points was followed by another in November but not changed at this year’s first Bank of Korea policy review….