by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 11:49:00 AM From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th]emphasis added From Goldman:…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 10:47:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in January. On a year-over-year basis, the…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:57:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:30:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 07:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 04:01:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
US Dollar Index DXY jumps above 107.00 after a hotter-than-expected inflation component in GDP data. CME FedWatch Tool now shows a near 35% probability that rates will remain steady in June, with cuts still on the table. Focus will shift to labor market data from February to be released at the beginning of March. The…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 12:53:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South – while the Northeast…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 08:36:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic…