by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2024 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2024 01:12:00 PM Two key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2024 06:59:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher to Start New Week Mortgage rates rose modestly last week after hitting long term lows before the Fed announced its 0.50% rate cut. In not so many words, mortgage rates had already gotten in position for…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2024 04:10:00 PM From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.31% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.31% as of August 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 155,000 homeowners are…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2024 11:01:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2024 07:55:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 22, 2024 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). Oil prices were…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2024 08:22:00 AM For fun: Through August 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 44 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Trivia: The only presidential term that saw job growth every month was President Obama’s 2nd…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August • Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2024 • Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August New Home sales, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for August, and Case-Shiller house prices for July. For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week. —– Monday, September 23rd —–…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2024 06:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…