by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 07:13:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another Boring Day With Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows [W]e’re hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we’d likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential…
by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 01:43:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06…
by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 11:36:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2025 08:16:00 AM Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st. This is the 21st year I’ve been writing this blog! Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing – and in early 2007, I predicted a recession. However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February…
by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2025 08:11:00 AM NOTE: I’m on vacation and returning this week. Government data might be rescheduled due to the government shutdown. The key economic report this week is September Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. —– Monday, October 20th —– No…
by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2025 08:11:00 AM From March 2013: Business Cycles and Markets I’ve been asked several times about the recent ECRI recession call (obviously I disagreed with their incorrect recession call in 2011 – I wasn’t even on recession watch then and I’m not on recession watch now – and I also think…
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2025 08:11:00 AM Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st. In 2005 and 2006, I was researching previous housing bubble / busts to try to predict what would happen following the bursting of the housing bubble. So, in April 2008, when many pundits were calling the…
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2025 08:11:00 AM Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st. In early 2009, many analysts were predicting the 2nd Great Depression. However I started seeing some positive signs … and I was able to call the end of the recession in mid-2009. From January 2009: Vehicle…
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2025 04:56:00 PM Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st. In December 2007, most analysts were still dramitically underestimating the probably losses for lenders and financial institutions. Here is an article from the WSJ quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go? The global…
by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2025 08:11:00 AM CR Note: On vacation. I will return on October 21st (If I don’t get lost!) In December 2006, my friend Doris “Tanta” Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk. From December 2006, until she passed away from ovarian cancer on Nov 30, 2008, Tanta was my co-blogger. Tanta worked…