by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 07:40:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 02:00:00 PM This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report. From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt: n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed that overall inflation remained somewhat above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal….
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 11:34:00 AM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: ABI July 2025: Business at architecture firms remains soft The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month was below 50 for 31 out of the…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 10:30:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 15, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 07:51:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 01:11:00 PM This is something I check occasionally. The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.3 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 09:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in July were well above expectations and starts in May and June were revised up. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Single-family housing…