by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 04:06:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure on labor markets and consumer demand could eventually weigh on freight activity.emphasis added U.S….
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 12:37:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 11:41:00 AM From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker … [August 8th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.1%. [August 7th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed:…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 08:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. Closed sales in July were mostly…
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 05:46:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 10:29:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. … 27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 69.5% (-0.1%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.00 (+0.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.90 (+0.4%)emphasis…
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 09:15:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in July Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.4, which is still an increase of 2.9% from a year…
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 07:27:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 01:21:00 PM Early in February, I expressed my “increasing concern” about the negative economic impact of “executive / fiscal policy errors”, however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a…