by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 02:44:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar. [July 18th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: June single-family housing starts were weaker than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 12:10:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in June, down 2.7% from May’s preliminary…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 09:11:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in June were above expectations (due to volatile multi-family sector) and starts in April and May were revised up. The third graph shows the…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 4.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,263,000, but is 0.5 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,327,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 07:57:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, up from 1.256 million SAAR in May. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July)….
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 03:16:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 01:11:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 12 July. … 6-12 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 67.2% (-3.2%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.42 (-0.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.39 (-3.7%) emphasis added The following…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 33, up from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Up in July Builder confidence for…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 08:35:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from June 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 07:02:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 235 thousand from 233 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Retail…