GDP

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 02:27:00 PM The BLS reported earlier this month: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 314.839 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 10:50:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY Excerpt: Sales in May (4.03 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from the previous month and were 0.7% below the May 2024 sales rate. This was the 4th consecutive…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 18% to 19% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than…

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2025 08:48:00 AM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long…

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May • California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets • Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May…

by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index. For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. Fed Chair Powell…

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. This will be the last weekly COVID update for now, although I’ll start posting again if COVID increases significantly. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will…

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 11:45:00 AM There will be some trade related distortions in Q2. From BofA: Overall, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 2.7% q/q saar to 2.6%. [June 17th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +4.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales…

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 08:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market sputters for third straight month in May as home sales and prices pull back, C.A.R. reports…