Uncertainty Reigns Yet Little Has Changed April 16, 2026 The Middle East’s future evolution remains unclear. Both sides want to avoid a resumption of the fight but still can’t find mutually acceptable terms for an extended peace. Equally uncertain is the economic repercussions of the war, which will be felt in most countries but in…
Fed Beige Book Highlights April 15, 2026 One way the Federal Open Market Committee prepares for each of the eight scheduled reviews of monetary policy per year is to have each of the twelve Districts conduct a survey of businesses in their jurisdiction to gauge regional trends in economic activity, pricing pressure, labor market conditions…
Markets Taking a Breather April 15, 2026 President Trump continues to dangle the chances of a deal with Iran happening soon and the April 21st ceasefire deadline getting extended. Dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are containing shipping traffic through the water body to a minimum but reportedly not zero. After several days with…
Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore April 14, 2026 Monetary policy in Singapore, which subordinates interest rates to whatever it takes to achieve a target for the economy’s currency, has been tightened for the first time since April 2022. Policy is reviewed on a quarterly basis and was last changed in January and April of 2025…
Evidence of Rising Inflation but Investors Clinging to Hope that Iran and U.S. Will Strike A Deal April 14, 2026 President Trump claims that Iranian negotiators want to resume negotiations to end the Middle East war. While not the most reliable source, investors have chosen to give his upbeat pronouncement the benefit of the doubt…
Predictably Adverse Market Reaction to Speedy End and Failure of Mediated U.S./Iranian Peace Talks April 13, 2026 (144) It took only a 21-hour single session of Peace talks for the American side, headed by VP Vance, to conclude there was no hope of success. Diplomatic talks after major wars tend to be quite extended and…
Next Week’s Menu: April 11-17, 2026 April 10, 2026 Central Banks: Monetary stances will be reviewed in Singapore and Turkey. Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin are some of the Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly during the period. So will Governor Bailey and MPC members Greene and Taylor of the Bank of England, Deputy Governor Hauser and…
Markets Wanting Peace but Bracing for Inflation April 10, 2026 Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal, and Iran is insisting that Israel’s continuing assault on Lebanon must be part of the discussion as a condition of Iranian participating in resumed peace talks with a U.S. delegation to be headed by VP Vance…
Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data April 9, 2026 The U.S./Iranian ceasefire got off to a very shaky start. Amazingly, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon was left out of the deal at least if the American narrative is to be believed. Iran is recounting a different story…
Electrifying Market Reversals after 2-Week Ceasefire Deal Averts Destruction of Iranian Infrastructure April 8, 2026 Although the evolution of the Middle East war beyond April 22 remains very uncertain, world financial markets sharply reversed prior trends, choosing to disregard the remaining hurdles that must be overcome to secure peace beyond the two-week ceasefire as well…