Today’s Half Percentage Point Further Increase in Brazil’s Selic Interest Rate Had Been Expected May 7, 2025 After decelerating from 12.1% in mid-2022 to 3.2% a year later, Brazilian consumer price inflation climbed back to a 25-month high of 5.5% by March of this year. Today’s increase in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic interest…
FOMC Statement and Chairman Powell’s Press Conference May 7, 2025 Federal Reserve policy held steady at the third scheduled FOMC review of 2025. The decision to stay put was very widely anticipated and approved by all voting members of the FOMC today. A released statement reaffirms that the recent pace of economic activity in the…
May 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview May 7, 2025 In the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has declined 4.2% against the euro and 1.7% relative to the yen. The 4-basis point net drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.1% slide of the Dow Jones Industrials belie the extreme financial market volatility…
Polish and Czech Central Bank Rate Cuts May 7, 2025 Officials at the Czech National Bank cut their two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, its lowest level since December 2021 and down from a cycle peak of 7.0% maintained for a full year prior to an initial cut in December 2023. One…
Tariff Fears Back in Ascendance May 6, 2025 If enduring dollar hegemony could be assumed, big shocks like a global tariff war would correlate with an appreciating trend driven by safety-seeking capital flows. However, America’s tariff-centric trade policy represents a revolution away from the whole dynamic of the post-WW2 international monetary system. Contrary to the…
Dollar Slips on a Day With Several Markets Closed for Holiday May 5, 2025 The dollar depreciated overnight by 0.8% against the yen, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, 0.4% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.3% against sterling. U.S. share prices are trading in the red in contrast to…
Next Week’s Menu: May 3-9, 2025 May 2, 2025 Central Banks: The Federal Reserve leads a lengthy list of central banks reviewing their interest rate stances, including the Bank of England and monetary authorities in Sweden, Norway, the Czech Republic, Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, Malaysia, Poland, Brazil and Peru. Fed Chairman Powell and Bank of England…
Lessening Recession Fears in Spite of Persistent Downside Risks May 2, 2025 A discernible sigh of relief could be heard in the markets after April’s surprisingly healthy U.S. labor situation report. Other lifts came from a 1.7% drop in the price of West Texas Intermediate oil and European manufacturing purchasing manager surveys. Key U.S. stock…
Bank of Japan Is Heard From on a Day Otherwise Muted by May Day Observances May 1, 2025 Bank of Japan officials signaled a longer wait before additional interest rate hikes. In response, the 10-year JGB yield slipped back six basis points, the yen fell 1.2%, but the Nikkei 225 index advanced 1.1%. This week’s…
April 2025 in Figures April 30, 2025 The dollar fell against most other major currencies in April as it had in the whole first quarter, if not more so. The slide was attributable not to economic fundamentals so much as a generalized loss of confidence in America’s geopolitical role in the world. Stock markets experienced…