A Good Day for the Dollar but a Bad One for Equities November 4, 2025 The dollar experience across-the-board appreciation overnight, rising on the weighted DXY basis past the 100.0 for the first time since the end of July and to its strongest such quote since May. Record highs against the Indian rupee elicited intervention…
New Month Beckons With Continuing U.S. Federal Shutdown, October Batch of Manufacturing PMI Surveys, Some Price Data and a Japanese Holiday Closure November 3, 2025 Economic pain from the unresolved 5-week-old U.S. federal government shutdown is expected to intensify in early November. On this first business day of November, manufacturing purchasing manager surveys have been…
October 2025 in Figures October 31, 2025 Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined substantially in the U.K. and Canada but experienced much smaller net changes during October in other economies in the table below. A 25-basis point cut in the federal funds target late in the month contrasted with decisions in Japan and Euroland not to…
Next Week’s Menu: November 1-7, 2025 October 31, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed next week in the U.K., Australia, Sweden, Norway, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Moldova, Georgia, Malaysia, and Czech Republic. Governors Bailey of the BOE, Bullock of the RB A, and Macklem of the BOC will hold press conferences. Daly, Mesalem and…
Witching Hour October 31, 2025 Halloween 2025 finds the dollar in treat mode, with overnight gains of 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus sterling, 0.2% relative to the loonie, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc and 0.1% against the euro. While many stock markets are closing the week on a down note, U.S. stock futures an…
A Three-Ring Circus of Market Influences October 30, 2025 A 90-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea resulted in a de-escalation of trade tensions but a rise in national security brinkmanship. While a formal trade deal was not signed, an understanding was reached on several points. The treat of a 100% U.S….
Another Canadian Central Bank Interest Cut but Perhaps the Last One of the Cycle October 29, 2025 The Canadian policy interest rate has been reduced by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This was the fourth such cut of 2025 and comes on top of 175 bps of easing during the final seven months of 2023….
Thoughts Regarding the FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference October 29, 2025 Two things unrelated to the characterization of current economic conditions pop up in today’s statement: The vote to cut confirm the 25-basis point interest rate cut was a spit one. Governor Miran as in September voted to reduce the interest rate by a…
October 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview October 29, 2025 A second consecutive 25-basis point cut of the federal funds rate target range to 3.75-4.00% is pretty universally expected after today’s 7th of eight 2025 scheduled policy reviews by the Federal Open Market Committee. At the first five reviews this year, monetary easing was on pause because…
A Very Busy Three Days Ahead October 29, 2025 The final three days of October are full of events that financial markets are following closely: A slew of companies are reporting 3Q earnings, including META, Alphabet, Microsoft, Caterpillar, UBS, CVS, Starbucks, ADP and Verizon. Nvidia beat expectations, sending its stock up 5% overnight thus far….