Surging Oil Price Takes Command of Everything Else March 9, 2026 (149) At today’s high, the $119.48 peak in West Texas Intermediate oil had leaped by a total 117% in less than three months and was 84% above its closing level on February 27 just before the start of Operation Epic Fury. The price has…
Celebrating the Return of Daylight Savings Time March 8, 2026 Let’s give a collective round of applause for the return of daylight savings time! Seeing the sun set at close to 7:00 PM tonight, something that hasn’t happened since the third week in September, will no doubt constitute a vast and most welcome improvement. Winter…
Next Week’s Menu: March 7-13, 2026 March 6, 2026 Central Banks: Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia have scheduled monetary policy reviews during the week. Holiday and Events: The Islamic holy month-long observance of Ramadan continues. The United States and Canada go on daylight savings time this Sunday, which will slice the time differential between GMT…
Middle East War Not Going As Well As Anticipated But the Dollar’s Doing Fine March 6, 2026 The military conflict against Iran was supposed to be different from others like those involving Venezuela, Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, or to go back 60 years Vietnam. Most importantly, no ground troops would be needed, so U.S. casualties…
Fate, Stress of the Job, Divine Intervention or Just Sheer Coincidence March 5, 2026 Whatever the reason, there is a pattern of short-lived retirements of American presidents who presided over the country’s major wars. It starts with James Polk, a one-term president for the four years through March 4, 1849. It was on his watch…
Another Polish Interest Rate Cut March 5, 2026 The National Bank of Poland lowered their policy reference interest rate to a 4-year low of 3.75% from 4.00% yesterday in what had been an expected decision in spite of the elevation of geopolitical uncertainties this month. The new level is 300 basis points below the peak…
Dollar, Bond Yields and Commodity Prices Up and Another Momentum Shift in Equities March 5, 2026 As has often been the case during the Iran war, there has been other equity market reversal between Asia’s and Europe’s trading day. Stock market indices rebounded 9.6% in South Korea, 2.6% in Taiwan, 1.9% in Japan, 1.8% in…
With Rumor Mill in Overdrive, Financial Markets Get Whipsawed March 4, 2026 A perfect storm of war, AI, and constantly fluctuating official statements regarding the middle eastern conflict is afoot for an out-of-control rumor mill. There’s been a wide reversal in market momentum during the overnight hours after an unconfirmed report that Iran intelligence officials…
Shifting Expectations about What Central Banks Might Need to Do March 3, 2026 All things considered, the reaction of financial markets yesterday to the quickly unfolding war in the Middle East was more muted than many had reason to expect. The media are having a hard time keeping up with the rapidly changing events, and…
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted March 2, 2026 The initial currency market reaction in these early days of the war between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the other has been favorable to the dollar, which is attracting funds looking for…