Bank of England Struggles to Find Policy Consensus August 7, 2025 On the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, officials are grappling with a recent reacceleration of inflation but also sluggish growth and higher unemployment. The Committee initially split 4-4-1 with a four-person minority including the bank’s chief economist favoring no change in the former…
Many Data Releases and Central Bank Interest Rate Announcements August 7, 2025 Reciprocal tariffs became effective today. The scale of their increase is profound, and reactions in America to the new tax are extremely polarized and aligned with political affiliations. For Trump supporters, today is a great day, heralding a large new source of fiscal…
Dollar Continues to Weaken as Trump Monopolizes News Feeds August 6, 2025 Since late Tuesday, the dollar has fallen 0.4% against the euro, kiwi and on a weighted DXY basis. The greenback has also dropped 0.8% vis-a-vis the Mexican peso , 0.3% versus the Australian dollar and 0.2% relative to sterling, the Turkish lira and…
Monday’s Equity Rebound Extended Into Asia and Europe but Has Stalled in the United States August 5, 2025 Concepts like democracy, rule of law and autocracy get thrown around so much these days that there is a risk that the comparison loses significance. When assessing a developed economy’s future potential, past experience strongly suggests that…
Dollar Stays Weak, but Equities Rebound Following Friday’s Selloff August 4, 2025 (180) Dollar losses last week were extended this Monday by 0.4% against the Mexican peso and Korean won, 0.2% versus the yen and sterling and 0.1% compared to the Canadian dollar. The euro is steady, and the Swiss franc has risen 0.5%. All…
Perfect Storm: Tariff D-Day, U.S. Labor Market Shocker and A Lot of Other Data to Digest August 1, 2025 It’s been a bad day for the dollar and equities. The weighted DXY dollar index has sunk 1.2%, led by 1.3% drops against the euro and Japanese yen and a 1.0% drop against the Swiss franc…
Japanese Yen Weakens Broadly and Crosses 150 per Dollar Threshold July 31, 2025 The Japanese yen fell 0.7% overnight into this morning against the dollar, which otherwise declined by 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc, 0.2% relative to sterling and 0.1% versus the Australian and New Zealand currencies. The yen got as low as…
Federal Open Market Committee Left Interest Rate Target Unchanged after 9-2 Vote July 30, 2025 This week’s FOMC meeting revised the characterization of recent economic activity from “a solid pace” to having “moderated during the first half of the year.” Characterizations of the labor market (a low jobless rate and solid conditions otherwise) and of…
GDP Reports and Interest Rate Decisions July 30, 2025 The dollar strengthened from Tuesday closing levels ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement due within the hour and amid preliminary second-quarter GDP releases that showed faster growth in the United States but slower expansion in Europe. Dollar gains have amounted so far to 0.8%…
Second Quarter GDP Data Starts to Trickle In July 29, 2025 The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day interest rate policy review today that is widely expected to leave the 4.25-4.5% federal funds target range unchanged in spite of relentless calls by President Trump for substantial rate reduction. Of particular interest will be whether…