FOMC Minutes, Tariff Mahem, and a Whole Lot of Price and Industrial Production Data Releases July 10, 2025 People are seeing what they want to see in yesterday afternoon’s publication by the Fed of minutes from the June 17-18 FOMC meeting. The minutes retain a majority view that embodies the likelihood of two 25-basis point…
More Tariff Letters, Extended Uncertainty, and the Beat of Released Data and Central Bank Watching Goes On July 9, 2025 Many governments received formal letters from President Trump yesterday, and others will get their “greetings” today. One is struck by the similarity of tariff threats assigned to each country to what had been promised nearly…
Investors Following the Bouncing Tariff Ball and Are Meanwhile Surprised by an Unexpected Australian Interest Rate Decision July 8, 2025 Continuing tariff policy uncertainty is making day-to-day financial market activity very choppy. President Trump had intensified tariff war fears on Monday by disclosing some hefty planned import levies, for instance 40% on goods shipped from…
More Tariff News July 7, 2025 (184) Like so many other Mondays this year, financial markets are marching to the beat of President Trump postings on Truth Social rather than economic fundamental trends. And as typically has been the case, the postings serve a dual purpose of unveiling new and changed information about future policy…
This Week’s Menu: July 5-11, 2025 July 6, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed in Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, South Korea, Peru, Romania and Serbia. FOMC minutes will be published on Wednesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement will be released. Waller, Daly and Musalem are some of the…
Trade Concerns Back in the Forefront July 4, 2025 Having secured a single broad tax and spending bill, President Trump turned attention back to promised trade tariffs, and once again investors are learning of a sudden policy shift. Instead of a multitude of trade negotiations with complex commodity-specific and varied tariff charges, the president has…
Awaiting U.S. Labor Statistics, Trump’s Fiscal Package and ECB Minutes July 3, 2025 Financial markets are waiting and seeing ahead of today’s one-day early release of June U.S. labor market statistics. Considerable progress was made overnight toward a likely passage by the House of President Trump’s tax and spending bill, setting the stage for its…
Surprise Interest Rate Cut at the National Bank of Poland July 2, 2025 When Poland’s interest rate was cut two months ago by a half percentage point, that was the first change since a pair of cuts in September and October of 2023. The length of that pause, the lack of a rate change in…
Looming Deadlines and Newly Expressed Concern about Dollar’s Recent Softness July 2, 2025 U.S. President Trump wants a reconciled tax and spending bill on his desk for signing by Friday, Independence Day.The senate’s bill passed by the narrowest of margins (51-50) and would raise U.S. debt considerably more than the House’s earlier plan. Despite that…
Dollar Kicks Off A New Quarter With Another Decline July 1, 2025 The weighted DXY dollar index slipped 0.4% overnight to a fresh 3-1/2-year low. The dollar lost 0.8% to the yen and Aussie dollar, 0.6% against the Swiss franc, 0.4% against sterling and 0.2% relative to the euro, which at $1.1809 currently is very…