Persistent Market Nervousness about U.S. Policy Changes March 10, 2025 (201) U.S. stock market futures show a decline of more than 1% this Monday, and the weighted dollar index has eased another 0.2%, bringing the decline since end-February to 3.4%. The yen gained 0.6% against the dollar overnight. While the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen…
Next Week’s Menu: March 8-14, 2025 March 7, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled inb Canada, Poland, Uzbekistan, Serbia and Peru. The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report with updated forecast, and Governor Macklem will hold a press conference afterward. ECB President Lagarde and Council members Lane, Nagel, De…
Central Bank Rate Changes in Turkey, Kazakhstan and Euroland March 7, 2025 Authorities at the National Bank of Kazakhstan lifted their policy interest rate today by 125 basis points to 16.5%, just 25 basis points south of the past cyclical high of 16.75% from December 2022 until August 2023. The rate had subsequently been cut…
China Trade Balance, Euroland GDP & Employment Growth, and U.S. Labor Market Situation Data March 7, 2025 With investors awaiting U.S. jobs figures due in just over a half hour, the dollar’s continues to show a soft tone, touching its lowest levels overnight in 17 weeks against the euro ($1.0871) and in a similar span…
Trump Speech, Lutnick’s Scoop, and Across-the-Board Large Rise in Long-Term European Interest Rates March 5, 2025 President Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress last night lasted 99 minutes (a multi-decade record) but was predictable for the most part. The element of policy surprise was leaked by Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who indicated that 25%…
Hypothetical Trade War Transformed Into an Actual One March 4, 2025 The only date in the calendar year whose name actually makes a statement is “March Forth”. Right on cue, a trade war pitting the United States against many other countries was launched by President Trump and met immediately by import duties against U.S. goods…
February Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys, Tariff Deadlines and Geopolitical Fallout from Friday’s White House Debacle March 3, 2025 (202) Financial markets have seen some big moves this first business day of March. The dollar has dropped 0.9% against the euro and sterling and has also lost 0.4% against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar and…
February 2025 in Figures February 28, 2025 Aside from a 3% drop against the Japanese yen and a slightly greater than 1% rise versus the Chinese yuan, net dollar movements in February were extremely trivial. Evidence emerged in the month than not only has U.S. disinflation progressed more slowly than hoped but also confidence in…
Next Week’s Menu: March 1-7, 2025 February 28, 2025 Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Malaysia, Turkey and at the European Central Bank. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, and the bank’s macro forecasts will be updated. Goolsbee, Williams, Barker and Bostic are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly…
U.S. Trade Deficit Surprise February 28, 2025 Financial markets around the world had been looking ahead all this week to today’s U.S. January report of personal income, consumption and PCE price deflator, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. As things turned out, the price index arrived pretty much as investors had been expecting….