Likelihood Rises that Both the Fed and ECB Will Cut Interest Rates Next Month August 22, 2024 A sizably large downward benchmark revision of U.S. jobs growth between March 2023 and March 2024 is the latest news to solidify the probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September. Investors look to Chairman…
Wednesday Briefing August 21, 2024 Central bank meetings today ended with decisions to leave interest rates unchanged in Iceland, Thailand, and Indonesia: The Bank of Iceland’s 7-day rate has been at 9.5% since a 50-basis point hike in August 2023. CPI inflation there remains too high and above expectations at 6.3%. The rate is at…
Swedish Central Bank Rate Cut and More to Come August 20, 2024 The Executive Board of the Swedish Riksbank cut their policy interest rate by 25 basis points for the second time since March and released a statement that points to somewhat greater easing over the rest of 2024. Officials proclaim in it that “the…
Mixed Central Banking Signals August 20, 2024 The Executive Board of the Swedish Riksbank cut their policy interest rate by 25 basis points for the second time since March and released a statement that points to somewhat greater easing over the rest of 2024. Officials proclaim in it that “the policy rate can be cut…
Slow and Uncertain Start to an Important Week August 19, 2024 Equity markets this Monday have traded mixed, with a few significantly drops such as -1.8% in Japan, -0.9% in South Korea and 0.5% in New Zealand outnumbered by rises elsewhere of less than 1%. U.S. stock futures were up by the thinnest of margins…
A Pause after Some Weak U.S. Housing Data August 16, 2024 A surprisingly frenzied move into riskier assets this week hit a mild speed bump from weak U.S. housing starts and building permits last month. Starts dropped 6.8% on month to a four-year low and were 16% below the year-earlier level. Permits fell 4% on…
Recession Fears Assuaged by Data August 15, 2024 Since midyear, worries about intractable inflation had been overcome by concerns that tight monetary polices in the United States and elsewhere had hung around too long and were now pushing economies toward recession. Data reported today seemingly lessen the possibility of that alternative danger. A Goldilocks scenario…
New Zealand’s First Interest Rate Cut of the Cycle August 14, 2024 There’s been a 25-basis point reduction in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate to 5.25%. Its the first easing of the cycle and was not widely expected by analysts. “Surveyed inflation expectations, firms’ pricing behavior, headline inflation, and a variety…
Heavy Diet of Price and GDP Growth Data August 14, 2024 The dollar had lost 0.4% against the euro and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and Chinese yuan an hour and a half into the U.S. trading day this Wednesday. Larger net movements of -1.0% and +1.0% had been clocked against the Mexican peso and…
Japanese Stock Market Rebound and Lower-Than-Forecast U.S. PPI Inflation August 13, 2024 Japan’s Nikkei-225 equity index surged over 1000 points (3.5%). Smaller stock market gains in the Pacific Rim were experienced in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and Australia, but India’s Sensex fell 0.9%. Share prices in Europe are marginally firmer. The S&P 500 and…