Fundamental Overview Gold had a positive day on Friday as it found support from the risk-off sentiment caused by Trump’s threat of substantially increasing tariffs on China. Over the weekend, we had more soothing comments from Trump and other US officials which triggered a recovery in risk sentiment. Despite the positive risk sentiment, gold started…
Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum has waned this week as traders turned their attention to the US CPI data coming up next week. The soft NFP report triggered a quick dovish repricing in interest rates expectations which fuelled a rally in gold as real yields fell. We’ve also seen more and more Fed members changing…
Fundamental Overview Gold erased last week’s losses in just a couple of days. It’s unclear what was the catalyst though. I can cite the usual “dollar weakness, safe haven demand” reasons but those don’t help with market timing. The most plausible explanation could be the recent volatility in some Asian currencies which would explain the…
Fundamental Overview The markets have been waiting for the US NFP to provide a clear signal for either a 25 or 50 bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but instead we got a mixed report with some better details under the hood. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and…
Fundamental Overview After the breakout of the 2480 resistance, gold eventually extended the gains into the 2532 level as the momentum buyers piled in. In the big picture, gold should remain supported as real yields fall as we head into the Fed’s easing cycle, but in the short-term strong US data might provide pullbacks along…
Fundamental Overview Gold has been feeling the pressure from the rise in real yields lately as the opportunity cost of holding into gold at these levels remains high. We will likely need some downside surprise in the US inflation data or weak economic reports to trigger another sustained rally. At the moment, the picture is…