Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 bps cut to its Deposit Rate to 3.50% at today’s monetary policy announcement, but remained relatively cautious about the pace of future easing. The ECB said domestic inflation and wages are elevated, but that labor cost pressures are moderating. The ECB was also guarded…
Part II: Quantifying Episodes of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the second part of the series, we quantify episodes of soft-landings, stagflation and recessions during the post-1950 period. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present a framework to quantify periods of soft-landing for the U.S. economy. Our work estimates…
The BoJ has taken up a much more aggressive strategy and we no longer expect them to wait for all the pieces to fall in place before tightening policies further. We expect the BoJ will hike its policy rate to 1% within the coming 12 months. The rate hike on 31 July was pivotal for…
The recent acute market reaction occurred due to increased recession fears Surprise indices point to a more balanced US economic situation Recessions tend to be caused by one-off major events The recent market drop has been attributed to higher chances of a US recession It has been a very volatile period in markets. The recent…
Part I: A New Toolkit to Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In this first part of a series of reports, we introduce a new toolkit to predict the probability of soft-landing, stagflation and recessionary episodes. Bernanke (2024) reviewed the Bank of England’s forecasting process for monetary policymaking, concentrating on the Bank’s forecasting and decision-making…
Summary The Bank of England (BoE) joined the growing group of G10 central banks that have eased monetary policy, by delivering an initial 25 bps policy rate cut to 5.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement. The guidance from the BoE’s announcement was also somewhat cautious, for now likely arguing against a steady series of rate…
Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) today joined the growing group of advanced economy central banks that have begun their monetary easing cycles, lowering its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. ECB policymakers cited the past drop of inflation and the improving inflation outlook as key factors behind their decision to lower interest rates….
Summary The FOMC remained on hold for the sixth consecutive policy meeting on May 1 as elevated inflation and strong job growth earlier this year led policymakers to conclude that policy easing at that time would not be appropriate. Data released since the last meeting indicate that the threat of price re-acceleration due to strong…