by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:43:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.8 billion in September, down $6.4 billion from $59.3 billion in August, revised. September exports were $289.3 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 191,000 to 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 07:26:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 191,000 initial claims last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The…
by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 02:11:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. The BEA’s estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 3.5%. That would put the…
by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 02:00:00 PM Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent…
by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the…
by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 07:53:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at…
by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 02:07:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*) A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various…
by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 11:57:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. November sales will be mostly for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 07:43:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month…