by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 11:34:00 AM It was almost thirteen years ago when I wrote “The Future’s so Bright …” I noted that I was the most optimistic since the ’90s, and that things would only get better. I pointed out that housing starts would increase significantly over the next several years, that state…
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 08:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 07:10:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week’s Gains The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we’re right back…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 11:45:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA),…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2025 06:12:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 30, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for 48.6%, down from 48.7%. • At 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. • At 8:00 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Brief Remarks and Panel Discussion…
by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2025 08:18:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September • FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026 • Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) • Freddie Mac House Price…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2025 08:11:00 AM Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week. Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week. The key reports this week are the November…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2025 02:25:00 PM From J.D. Power: November New-Vehicle Retail Sales Decline 4.8% as Effects of EV Pull-Ahead Persist Brief excerpt: Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and…