by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 09:40:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in September Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.0, a decline of 5.3% from a year ago. The seasonal…
by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.6% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is…
by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2024 07:34:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 6, 2024 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $73.98 per barrel and Brent…
by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2024 08:14:00 AM Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High From Moody’s Analytics economists: Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled Down The Q3 2024 data indicated a slight…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year •…
by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is September CPI. Other key indicators include September PPI and the August trade deficit. —– Monday, October 7th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, October 8th —– 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 07:00:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 03:41:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is up three-tenths to 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 4th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 3rd…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 12:37:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 09:16:00 AM The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is…