by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 12:51:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: September ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year Brief excerpt: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2025 07:10:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 7, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 9 and DOW futures are up 82 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $61.92 per…
by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2025 08:09:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which measures seasonally adjusted month to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain, fell 0.5% in August 2025 from July 2025, its fourth decline…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in July; Up 1.4% Year-over-Year • What will happen with House Prices? • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year This is usually published 4 to 6 times…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2025 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision on Tuesday. —– Monday, September 8th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, September 9th —– 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August….
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 03:58:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 30 August The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 30 August….
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 03:11:00 PM From BofA: [O]ur 3Q GDP tracking has moved up a tenth to 1.6%. Also, our 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 3.2% from the second estiamte of 2Q GDP by the BEA. [September 5th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 12:05:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: What will happen with House Prices? Brief excerpt: Almost every day a journalist or an analyst asks me what will happen with house prices. Every cycle is different, and usually I focus on inventory, sales, and months-of-supply to answer this question. However,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 09:11:00 AM The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations and June and July payrolls were revised down by 21,000 combined. A weak report. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.3%. Prime (25 to 54 Years…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was…