by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 01:19:00 PM Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time. The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948. The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer. A few observations:1)…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 09:50:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. Closed sales in July were mostly…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 07:42:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 02:13:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 12:03:00 PM The BLS reported earlier today: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 316.349 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today’s rates are much closer to Friday’s latest levels…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 01:50:00 PM Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble – and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 06:23:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 54 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $63.53 per…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0%…