by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 11:45:00 AM There will be some trade related distortions in Q2. From BofA: Overall, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 2.7% q/q saar to 2.6%. [June 17th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +4.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 08:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market sputters for third straight month in May as home sales and prices pull back, C.A.R. reports…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 04:03:00 PM This data is as of June 17, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years. Air travel is essentially unchanged YoY (down about 1.1% YoY). The red line is the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 10:57:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 08:13:00 AM A year ago I wrote: The Art of the Soft Landing A few excerpts and an updated graph … The “Art of the Soft Landing” requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. My view is…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day Source link
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 03:26:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2025: Despite persistent softness, fewer firms report declining billings The modest uptick in the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score to 47.2 for the month means that fewer…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 02:08:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. The projections are pretty bearish. The BEA’s advance estimate for Q1 GDP showed real growth at -0.2% annualized. There is a wide range of estimates for…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 02:00:00 PM Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor…