by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods…
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 01:10:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. … 18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 10:09:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis,…
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 01:08:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April Pending home sales decreased 6.3% in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions. Year-over-year, contract signings rose in the Midwest but descended in the Northeast, South and West…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 08:35:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau…
by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2025 07:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 232 thousand, up from 229 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic…