by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 07:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday’s levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 11:00:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2025 06:56:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025 • Ten Economic Questions for 2026 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 21 and DOW…
1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026? 2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025. How…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November • Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads •…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2025 07:37:00 AM Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. For example, we are still missing housing starts and new home sales for September, October and November. The key economic report this week is Q3 GDP. —– Monday, December…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 03:28:00 PM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices Excerpt: While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 11:03:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025. Sales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to November 2024. The last month of 2025 will have a…