by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 12:35:00 PM From BofA: We initiated our 2Q GDP tracking after the April retail sales print. It moved up two-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to -0.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication…
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 09:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total…
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,361,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,339,000, but is 1.7 percent below the April 2024 rate of 1,385,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:26:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.360 million SAAR, up from 1.324 million SAAR in March. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May)….
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 05:08:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 May. … 4-10 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 64.6% (-2.3%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.57 (-0.7%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.08 (-3.0%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 02:01:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This data suggests sales will be down year-over-year for the 3rd consecutive month in April, and that sales-to-date in 2025 are trailing sales in 2024 – and 2024 was…
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder…
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding…
by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:58:00 AM From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks. Excerpts: The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Longer-term interest rates are a good deal higher now, driven largely by real rates given the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Many estimates…
by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2025 07:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 230 thousand, up from 228 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales…