by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 06:31:00 PM From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt: If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take pressure off automakers and dealers to limit…
by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 06:06:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI March 2025: Business conditions at architecture firms soften further The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms reported a decline…
by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 02:17:00 PM From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an increase of less…
by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 10:35:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined.…The…
by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 12:49:00 PM Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know? A few brief excerpts: Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to…
Silver has always played a supporting role to gold in global finance. Yet in 2025, this metal is stepping into the spotlight. With rising demand from green industries, increasing investor attention, and global economic uncertainty, this metal is no longer just gold’s cheaper cousin. It’s a precious metal with its own powerful narrative. In this…
by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 09:49:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter Changes in U.S. trade policy over the past two weeks have impacted global…
by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 07:33:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders…
by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:03:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary…