Other key reports include the February Trade Deficit and March Auto Sales. For manufacturing, the March ISM Manufacturing and Dallas Fed surveys will be released. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. —– Monday, March 31st —– 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 07:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 04:38:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie’s rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in February 2024, however,…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 11:20:00 AM UPDATE: Updated Goldman tracking this morning. From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 28th…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:56:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:30:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:13:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 05:50:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 02:47:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. … 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.48 (+1.8%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.22 (+2.8%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 11:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…