In focus today and over the weekend The potential for talks between the US and Iran over the weekend to reach an agreement will be in focus, as a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was reached yesterday. We expect the two sides will agree on an extension to the temporary ceasefire, while a more permanent…
Markets In less than a week 1) an Iranian civilization was about to be wiped out 2) before Pakistani mediation resulted in a two-week ceasefire and the first high-level talks over the weekend only for the latter to 3) break down after 21 hours and bringing us de facto back to 1). After negotiations fell…
Oil prices climbed back toward $105 after the latest escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, but markets have stopped well short of panic pricing. Despite strong headlines around a US “total blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad, the response has been controlled rather than explosive. The moves in Brent…
Attention is firmly on Islamabad as the United States and Iran begin their first high-level talks since the onset of war, with markets looking for signs of a breakthrough that could evolve into a broader Islamabad Accord. The outcome would be as a defining moment for energy markets, inflation, and global risk sentiment, with delegations…
Key takeaways Volatility driven by ceasefire uncertainty: WTI crude surged above $102.25 to as high as $116 before reversing sharply, with an intraday whipsaw driven by conflicting signals around a potential US–Iran ceasefire and Trump’s rhetoric. Ceasefire expectations skewed to June: Prediction market assigns low odds of a ceasefire by end-April (~22.5%) but sees a…
Finance Magnates Intelligence spoke with Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at ATFX, to better understand how current tensions in the Middle East are affecting ATFX Connect’s operations. In an era when geopolitical shifts have become a primary driver of asset prices, the interview reveals how a major institutional provider maintains stability during periods of extreme…
Instead of confirming a near-term exit from the Iran War, US President Donald Trump’s address has triggered a sharp repricing of war risk, with markets shifting from de-escalation expectations to renewed escalation. Hopes for any diplomatic resolutions were dashed. Brent oil price surged back toward $110, and risks are now skewed toward a further move…
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, pushing yields lower. This time,…
Markets As was the case already over the previous four weeks, trading is pushed back and forth to the tunes headlines on the latest developments in the Middle East and the many guesstimates what it might mean for the economy, for prices and for (monetary) policy. As always in markets, this has also to be…
Markets It was again a really hectic day at the start of the fourth week of the conflict in Iran/the Middle East. The ultimatum of US President Trump ‘obliging’ Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz around midnight this evening (European time) gave markets a nihil obstat to resume the Iran/risk-off/stagflation trade at the…