by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 03:52:00 PM From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Cooling Off in May; Inventory Still Falling (pay content). Brief excerpt: With inventory set to continue declining month-to-month, and the cost to automakers of the tariffs more strongly kicking in by July, sales are likely to continue sequential weakness into the summer –…
by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 11:32:00 AM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long…
by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 07:03:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody’s credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade broke with only minutes left in Friday’s market/business day, so…
by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 01:55:00 PM There were still a large number of ships unloading in April. We should see a sharp drop in May traffic due to the tariffs. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report…
by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 10:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: “How do you grade the Spring housing market?” A brief excerpt: Last week, Housing Wire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler asked Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami the above question: “How do you grade the Spring housing market?” My friend Logan replied:…
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2025 06:16:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 18, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 43 and DOW futures are down 267 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $62.49 per…
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2025 08:12:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April • MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home…
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are April New and Existing Home Sales. —– Monday, May 19th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, May 20th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Wednesday, May 21st —– 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the…
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 07:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…