by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2025 09:56:00 AM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June,…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q4 • Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March…
by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected. For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday,…
by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2025 07:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2025 11:36:00 AM From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week….
by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2025 08:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons:…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 07:41:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 03:55:00 PM This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were:1) Canada 31% in 20232) Mexico 22% in 20233) UK 6% in 2023 And it appears there has been a sharp decline in Canadians traveling to the U.S. United Airlines…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 12:55:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity – jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” – and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 12:00:00 PM The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.3 trillion and…