by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2025 12:01:00 PM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in…
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2025 11:31:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE: The CDC has stopped releasing health data (hopefully temporarily). For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024,…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December • NMHC on Apartments: “Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter • 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 • 4th Look…
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected. —– Monday, January 27th —– 8:30 AM: Chicago…
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2025 05:10:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Jan 24th estimate] And from…
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2025 02:11:00 PM From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024’s Growth (pay content). Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January there is upside to the outlook….
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Excerpt: Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive month with a…
by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2025 08:49:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. • Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s…
by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2025 03:51:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2025 07:30:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. • At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed…