by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, January 13th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, January 14th —–…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 04:05:00 PM A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. … The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 01:02:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 09:47:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following…
by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 07:46:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer…
by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 11:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs….
by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:55:00 AM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 227,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 08:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • The US NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. • At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. •…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 04:15:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2% while institutional planning improved 2.5%. “Commercial…