by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2024 10:50:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0% q/q saar in the final official estimate. [Sept 27th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this…
by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2024 09:15:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through August 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.2% year-over-year in August, up from 5.0 in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2024 08:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays, August 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to…
by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2024 04:19:00 PM From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast for 9-Month-High SAAR Despite Drop in Volume (pay content). Brief excerpt: If September’s outlook holds true, Q3 sales will decline 1.8% year-over-year. However, deliveries in October-December, goosed by two additional selling days vs. the year-ago period, are forecast to rise 7.4%…
by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2024 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edged Up 0.6% in August Pending home sales in August rose 0.6%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions, while the Northeast recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the West registered growth, but the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2024 07:13:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 226 thousand initial claims, up from 219 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2024 02:21:00 PM From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage delinquencies remain low despite modest year-over-year rise • The national delinquency rate fell 3 basis points (bps) to 3.34% in August, dropping 0.9% for the month but up 5.1% from last year • The number of borrowers a single…
by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2024 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 20, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan…
by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2024 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2024 01:12:00 PM Two key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal…