by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 01:51:00 PM Yesterday, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote: Last week’s benign US inflation data reinforced our view that the Q1 spike was an aberration. Meanwhile, the labor market stands at a potential inflection point where a further softening in labor demand would hit actual jobs, not just open…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 43, down from 45 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 14, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2024 07:27:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2024 04:26:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2024 07:00:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back Above 7% to Start New Week Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to just over 7% today….
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2024 02:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period A brief excerpt: In March 2022, I wrote: Housing: Don’t Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust It is natural to compare the current housing boom…
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2024 10:57:00 AM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2024 09:07:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 16, 2024 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -13.0, up from -15.6. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2024 08:21:00 AM Note: I’ve received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. Important: There are…