by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 07:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. • At 2:00 PM,…
by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 01:35:00 PM Two key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal…
by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2024 06:10:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 26, 2024 Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. The consensus is for the Case-Shiller National Index to increase 6.8% YoY, up from 6.4% YoY in February. • Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March….
by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2024 09:21:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 20.3% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 24th, inventory was at 595…
by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2024 08:21:00 AM The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of May 24th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue). The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Air…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Decrease to 634,000 Annual Rate in April • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.14 million SAAR in April • Watch Months-of-Supply! • Single Family Built-for-Rent Up 20% Year-over-year in Q1 • 4th Look at Local Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April. For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, May 27th —– All US markets will be closed in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 02:21:00 PM From BofA: 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 1.8% q/q saar. Also, we expect the second print of 1Q GDP to be revised down to 1.2% from 1.6%. [May 24th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.2% (qoq…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:16:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Although inventory is well below normal levels, so are sales. I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely this…