by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:55:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s average.emphasis added The following graph shows…
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 09:06:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 223K initial claims. • Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 43,000…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 05:05:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 02:53:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 02:00:00 PM From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2025. Excerpt: In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated. Participants further noted that available indicators suggested that economic…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 08:43:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, revised. August exports were $280.8 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 08:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 03:46:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…