by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2025 11:33:00 AM There are four remaining FOMC meetings this year: July, September, October and December. It is very unlikely that the FOMC will cut rates next week, but there are very different views on the rest of 2025. First, from BofA: With the u-rate rising more gradually in our new…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 07:44:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates didn’t move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 01:57:00 PM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2 Excerpt: From the NMHC: Borrowing Conditions Continue to Improve While Most Respondents Report an Unchanged Market The Market Tightness Index (54), Sales Volume Index (55) and Debt Financing Index (69) all came in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.2% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory. The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 06:21:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 2 and DOW futures are down 33 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.34 per…
by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 08:21:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June • Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? This is…
by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are June New and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, July 21st —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, July 22nd —– 8:30 AM: Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 02:44:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar. [July 18th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: June single-family housing starts were weaker than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 12:10:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in June, down 2.7% from May’s preliminary…