There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP. From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands…
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that…
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 08:55:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025 Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 07:59:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to…
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 03:29:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 11:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the April Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Reveals 1.8% Increase in May Pending home sales increased by 1.8% in May from the prior month and 1.1% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month increases – most…
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 08:38:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by…
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 245,000 to 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,000,…