by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:37:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 236,000 initial claims last week. 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 03:59:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 01:18:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 10:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 08:07:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 12:25:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 10:33:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 07:36:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender’s top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that’s been intact since early…