by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:56:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:30:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:13:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 05:50:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 02:47:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. … 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.48 (+1.8%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.22 (+2.8%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 11:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the Midwest and South saw…
by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:44:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released…
by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2025 07:29:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 4th…
by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2025 02:10:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long…