by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today’s rates are much closer to Friday’s latest levels…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 01:50:00 PM Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble – and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 06:23:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 54 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $63.53 per…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0%…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease • How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026? • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged…
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, the August NY Fed survey, and the July Industrial Production report will be released. —– Monday, August 11th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, August 12th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 04:06:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure on labor markets and consumer demand could eventually weigh on freight activity.emphasis added U.S….
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 12:37:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 11:41:00 AM From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker … [August 8th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.1%. [August 7th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed:…