by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 10:00:00 AM The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2025 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and…
by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 08:14:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 16.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 9% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup…
by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2025 06:17:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of April 27, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the Q1 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12…
by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2025 08:47:00 AM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY • New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March • NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs • Lawler: Early Read on…
by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report. Other key reports include the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March Personal Income and Outlays, February Case-Shiller house prices, and April vehicle sales. For manufacturing, the April Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, and the ISM index will…
by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 06:55:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 03:53:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 01:00:00 PM Yesterday, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.7% from February and are now down 5.4% from the June 2024 peak. This is…
by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 10:13:00 AM The advance estimate of Q1 GDP is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, April 30th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in real GDP, quarter-over-quarter annualized – or essentially no growth in Q1. From BofA: We expect 1Q advance GDP to print at a weak 0.4% q/q…