by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking…
by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 02:49:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads On April 4th, the day after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the so-called 30-year “current-coupon” MBS yield closed at 5.34%, its lowest level since the middle of last October. Last week’s bond market debacle, however, hit the…
by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 11:16:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for housing, the key will…
by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2025 06:22:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.50 per…
by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2025 08:31:00 AM The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. From Goldman Sachs economists: The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home…
by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, the March Industrial Production report, and NY and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday. —– Monday, April 14th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 07:27:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 02:59:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 12:06:00 PM From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate…