In that post, I noted that the next recession would likely be caused by one of the following: • “An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons. All of…
by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2025 12:13:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of…
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 07:32:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 11:37:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. … Apartment List:…
by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2025 07:58:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government)….
by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2025 04:40:00 PM From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. According…
by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2025 08:31:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend. But rates are starting the…
by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2025 05:00:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or pull-ahead volume in case of…
by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2025 11:49:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Brief excerpt: Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the…
by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2025 07:23:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. • Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1%…