by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 03:31:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final…
by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 12:06:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace…
by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 09:29:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts…
by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 09:15:00 AM Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work…
by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2025 07:41:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. • At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December….
by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2025 10:19:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns…
by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2025 08:13:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December…
by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2025 02:38:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Construction activity decreased overall, with several Districts indicating that…
by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2025 07:49:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is…